TIFA poll boss explains reason behind Edwin Sifuna’s rapid rise in popularity - ‘Never seen anything like this’

TIFA Research analyst Tom Wolf has marveled at the rapid rise in popularity of Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna.

Sifuna has enjoyed a meteoric rise as a potential presidential candidate and based on an opinion poll released by TIFA on Thursday, he is tied on 31% with President William Ruto when it comes to which politician Kenyans favour ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Wolf says a lot of dynamics have gone into Sifuna’s rise but he is surprised at how he has moved from 15% in popularity in June to 31% in November.

“As we move towards the election in nine months, and we ask people whether they are registered who they will vote for, we will get closer to an actual result,” Wolf said on Citizen TV.

“We encourage people to look not so much at the individual figure but at the trends. In what direction are things moving?” he posed.

“Senator Sifuna’s popularity as a potential presidential candidate doubled since June. That is astonishing. I have been doing these surveys for about 20 years now and this would be my fifth election,” he admitted.

“I have never seen anything like this before, where a new political party has come from nowhere, boosting or moving with it a potential presidential candidate from nowhere.

“To see that doubling from 15% to 31%. The president also gained 9% and he being very known quality and who his deputy is a more solid figure.”

According to Wolf, Sifuna’s numbers rapidly increased once he secured a political party. The former ODM Party Secretary General unveiled the Equitable Party in early October before rebranding it to Linda Mwananchi Movement Party.

For his supporters, this removed any doubt about his bid for the presidency, giving them confidence that he will be on the ballot, according to the veteran researcher and political analyst.

“My main assumption, which will have to be tested in qualitative research, is that in June, Sifuna did not have a party. He was still a dissident within ODM, the Linda Mwananchi vs Linda ground,” he added.

“Luckily for us, just before we went to the field, he got his Equitable Party translated into Linda Mwananchi. So we made an assumption that most of the people we were interviewing in that 10-day period knew that he had a party. That is the main reason that people now see him as a potential candidate.”

But while Sifuna is the leading candidate among the opposition figures, who also include Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DCP boss Rigathi Gachagua, Jubilee’s Fred Matiang’I and Martha Karua of PLP, Wolf warns that things could change once they settle on their flagbearer as those who miss out could decamp and eat into his support.

“If Sifuna becomes the presidential candidate, we don’t know what the other opposition leaders who want to be president are going to be,” said Wolf.

“Are they going to support him and if so, how much? In what way and how strenuously are they going to mobilise their bases.”

The poll put Sifuna and Ruto tied at 31% with Kalonzo dropping from 25% in August 2022 to 9% while Matiang’i is at 5% and Gachagua polling 4%.

Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro also featured among the potential presidential contenders, registering 1% in the latest survey.