Ruto, Edwin Sifuna Lead 2027 Presidential Race as Kalonzo, Matiang’i Lose Support

President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna have emerged as the leading contenders in the 2027 presidential race.

Ruto and Sifuna, each attracting 31% support in the latest TIFA Research opinion poll.

The survey, released on Thursday, November 12, 2026, places the two politicians ahead of other potential candidates, as several opposition leaders record a decline in popularity.

According to the findings, Ruto’s support has grown from 18% in August 2022 to 31% in November 2026, representing a 13-percentage-point increase over four years.

Sifuna, meanwhile, has registered a remarkable rise in popularity, moving from no recorded support between 2022 and 2025 to matching the President at 31% in the latest survey.

Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka has experienced a decline in his political standing, with his support dropping to 9% from a high of 25% recorded in August 2022.

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i recorded an even steeper fall, with his popularity declining from 32% in August 2022 to just 5% in November 2026.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua attracted 4% support, down from his highest rating of 9% in May 2026.

Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro also featured among the potential presidential contenders, registering 1% in the latest survey.

Support for other aspirants similarly fell to 1%, compared with a peak of 14% in September 2025.

The findings further showed that 15% of respondents had not settled on their preferred presidential candidate, down from 20% in June 2026.

Another 4% declined to disclose their choice, a figure that remained relatively unchanged throughout the survey period.

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki emerged as the overwhelming favourite to retain the position of Ruto’s running mate in the 2027 General Election.

He received 55% support among respondents who back the president, placing him well ahead of other potential candidates.

Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga came second with 12%, followed by Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, who attracted 9%.

ODM party leader Oburu Odinga, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetangula each received 4% support.

Kindiki’s strong showing suggests that a majority of Ruto’s supporters would prefer him to remain on the presidential ticket rather than have the President select a different running mate ahead of the next election.

The survey also examined the likelihood of opposition leaders joining forces ahead of the 2027 General Election, with most respondents expressing confidence that the rival political camps could eventually reach an agreement.

The findings indicated that 57% of opposition supporters considered an alliance between the Linda Mwananchi Movement and the United Opposition/Ukombozi group very likely.

Another 22% said a political agreement between the two camps was somewhat likely, bringing the combined proportion of those who anticipate a possible alliance to 79%.

However, not all respondents were convinced that the groups would overcome their differences.

Eight per cent considered a unity arrangement unlikely, while 7% said it was very unlikely.

A further 6% were undecided on whether opposition leaders would put aside their political differences and agree to work together before the elections.

The survey based its findings on responses from 758 opposition supporters who were asked to assess the likelihood of Linda Mwananchi and Ukombozi leaders forming a political alliance ahead of the 2027 polls.