CS Kagwe explains prolonged milk shortage, reveals when markets could stabilize

Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe has ruled out Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) as a primary factor behind Kenya’s ongoing milk deficit.

Speaking in an interview with NTVKenya, on current supply chain constraints, Kagwe attributed the squeeze instead to prolonged drought conditions that have severely limited dairy feed, alongside consumer panic buying.

According to official figures from the Ministry of Agriculture, milk collections from farmers to formal processing plants have dropped by roughly 5.8%. However, government officials expect market conditions to stabilize as the seasonal rains resume and replenish pastures across key dairy belts.

The supply dip began taking shape around mid-2026. Data from the Kenya Dairy Board revealed that formal milk intake fell steadily through June, dropping down to roughly 84.44 million liters.

By late August and early September, major retail outlets and supermarket chains across urban centers like Nairobi, Kisumu, and Nakuru began experiencing noticeable gaps on store shelves.

What began as a localized drop in collection quickly escalated into nationwide supply friction.

Extended dry spells across key agricultural regions drastically cut down fodder availability, reducing daily yield per livestock head.

The issue was compounded by competition from the informal market; unorganized middlemen began offering higher farmgate cash prices, diverting raw milk away from commercial processors. By the time the government stepped in with public clarifications, retail stores were already rationing packeted milk to prevent total stock depletion.

The persistent shortage has sparked widespread frustration among consumers, consumer rights groups, and industry observers.

Consumer frustration and hoarding: On social media and at local retail outlets, Kenyans have voiced dismay over empty dairy aisles and rising retail prices. Fear of escalating scarcity triggered a cycle of panic buying. Households that typically purchase one or two packets began buying in bulk, artificially worsening the deficit on retail shelves.

Consumer advocacy warnings: The Consumers Federation of Kenya (COFEK) raised alarms early during the shortage, warning that reduced formal intake would hit lower-income households hardest. COFEK called for urgent policy intervention to protect consumers from arbitrary price hikes by retailers taking advantage of the shortfall.

Public skepticism: Many citizens expressed frustration over recurring agricultural deficits, calling on the government to move past conversational declarations and implement permanent solutions for fodder preservation, climate resilience, and feed storage.

Despite the retail deficit, dairy farming remains financially viable for producers who have feed reserves. Data from the Kenya Dairy Board indicates that the average cost of producing a liter of milk ranges between KSh 24.50 for open grazing and KSh 39.50 for zero-grazing systems, yielding an overall production average of KSh 36.20 per liter.

Amid the current supply crunch, processors and private buyers are offering premium farmgate prices between KSh 55 and KSh 60 per liter, allowing farmers to earn a healthy margin.

To build long-term resilience against future weather shocks, the Ministry of Agriculture is encouraging dairy cooperatives to pass market premiums directly to farmers and accelerate the adoption of drought-tolerant fodder varieties suitable for Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs).

With the upcoming rainy season expected to regenerate pastures, authorities anticipate supply levels to recover in the coming months.