Kenya’s milk shortage, who is feeling the pinch most?

For many Kenyan households, milk is one of those items that barely gets a second thought.

It goes into morning tea, children’s porridge, breakfast cereals and evening drinks. For small businesses, it is an ingredient in tea, coffee, mandazi, cakes and other everyday products.

But with milk supplies tightening across parts of the country, that simple routine has been disrupted.

Supermarkets and retail outlets in Nairobi and other parts of the country have reported reduced stocks, with some popular brands disappearing from shelves and some retailers limiting how much customers can buy.

The Kenya Dairy Board says the situation is temporary and largely linked to seasonal production challenges, with dry and cold conditions affecting pasture and fodder availability.

While the shortage is being felt across the market, some groups are likely to feel the effects more sharply than others.

The first and most obvious group is the ordinary household.

For families that buy milk every morning, the shortage means more than simply finding another brand. It can mean visiting several shops before finding a packet, paying more for the same quantity or changing what the family has for breakfast.

This is particularly difficult for lower-income households that operate on tight food budgets.

A Sh3 or Sh5 increase may appear small on its own, but repeated every day can add up over the course of a month. When combined with the rising cost of other basic foods, households have fewer options for absorbing the increase.

Some shoppers are also being forced to choose between buying the milk they normally use and settling for whatever brand or type is available.

Children who depend on milk as part of their breakfast or school meals are another group likely to feel the shortage.

Milk is commonly served alongside tea, porridge and other breakfast foods, making its availability particularly important in households and institutions where it is part of a regular meal routine.

For parents already struggling to keep up with food and school-related expenses, a shortage can mean having to replace milk with cheaper alternatives or reduce how frequently it is bought.

The problem is not necessarily that children cannot eat without milk. It is that a disruption to a familiar source of nutrition can be harder for families that already have limited room to adjust their diets.

Perhaps one of the least discussed groups affected are the thousands of small businesses that use milk every day.

Think of the roadside tea vendor, café, hotel, bakery or small restaurant.

For these businesses, milk is not simply something they consume. It is part of the product they sell.

A tea vendor who normally buys several litres a day may now have to search for supplies, pay more or reduce the amount of milk used in each cup.

That creates a difficult choice. Increase prices and risk losing customers, maintain the same price and accept lower profits, or alter the product altogether.

For small businesses operating on narrow margins, any sustained increase in the cost of an essential ingredient can quickly become a business problem.

The impact also extends beyond businesses that visibly sell milk.

Bakeries and other food businesses use dairy products in cakes, pastries, bread, sauces and other products.

When the cost or availability of milk changes, businesses can either absorb the additional expense or pass it on to consumers.

That means a milk shortage can eventually become a wider food-price issue if it lasts long enough.

The effect is likely to be more significant for smaller businesses that lack the purchasing power and storage capacity of large manufacturers.

Kenya's hospitality industry is another sector with plenty at stake.

Milk is used in tea, coffee, porridge, smoothies, desserts and various meals served by hotels and restaurants.

For a large hotel, a temporary shortage may be manageable because it can source from different suppliers or switch between products.

For a small café, the options may be much narrower.

A business that depends heavily on milk-based drinks could therefore face higher operating costs at precisely the time when customers are already sensitive to price increases.

The shortage could be particularly uncomfortable for low-income urban families because many do not have the option of buying large quantities when supplies are available.

A wealthier household may be able to visit several supermarkets, buy alternative brands or stock up on long-life milk.

A family living from one pay day to the next has fewer choices.

This creates an interesting contradiction in the current shortage. The product may still be available somewhere in the market, but availability does not necessarily mean accessibility.

If consumers have to travel further, buy a more expensive brand or purchase larger quantities than they normally would, the real cost of getting milk rises.

There is also another group that deserves attention: dairy farmers.

At first glance, a milk shortage might appear to be good news for farmers because limited supply can push prices upwards.

But the current situation is more complicated.

The Kenya Dairy Board has linked the supply constraints to dry and cold conditions that have reduced pasture and fodder availability.

That means farmers are dealing with the very conditions that are making milk more valuable in the market.

For farmers without enough feed reserves, producing more milk is not simply a matter of milking more cows. Feed costs, water availability and animal productivity all come into play.

In other words, the shortage is not necessarily a windfall for the farmer. It is a sign of pressure further up the dairy value chain.