WMO issues fresh El Niño warning as Kenya braces for above-normal rains: details

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that the expected October-December (OND) El Niño rains are set to intensify into a very strong episode, raising the risk of extreme weather in the coming months and into 2027 as Kenya prepares for the climate event.

In an update issued on Thursday, September 3, WMO said El Niño is already firmly established and is expected to strengthen further, with forecasts showing an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” that the event will persist through February 2027.

The update comes two days after Kenya’s Ministry of Interior and National Administration outlined seven measures being implemented to strengthen preparedness for the expected OND rains, which the government says could bring above-normal rainfall across most parts of the country.

The ministry has warned of possible flooding, drowning, injuries and fatalities, displacement and isolation of communities, disease outbreaks and disruption of essential services.

The update comes two days after Kenya’s Ministry of Interior and National Administration outlined seven measures being implemented to strengthen preparedness for the expected OND rains, which the government says could bring above-normal rainfall across most parts of the country.

According to WMO, exceptionally warm conditions across the tropical Pacific are supporting further strengthening of El Niño, with the event expected to reach a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026.

WMO said a very strong El Niño can significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns in different parts of the world and increase the risk of extreme weather, including floods, drought and extreme heat.

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, warning of rising risks from extreme weather.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo similarly said the strengthening event could increase disruption from droughts and floods.

“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response,” Saulo said, adding that WMO and national meteorological and hydrological services were stepping up preparedness and early-warning efforts.

Kenya’s government has already activated a National Contingency Plan involving national and county government agencies, humanitarian partners, security agencies and other disaster management stakeholders.

The plan includes mapping flood and other high-risk areas to identify locations vulnerable to heavy rainfall and prioritise evacuation and response measures.

The government has identified vulnerable areas in riverine and low-lying zones, coastal regions, highland and landslide-prone areas, arid and semi-arid lands, northern Kenya and urban areas prone to flooding.

Roads and transport infrastructure likely to be affected have also been identified across several regions, including North Eastern, Tana River, Coastal, Western/Nyanza, Rift Valley, Turkana, Nairobi, Central and Eastern.

“Hotspot mapping has been undertaken to identify areas particularly vulnerable to flooding and other impacts of heavy rainfall,” the Ministry of Interior said.

The government is also unclogging and desilting drainage systems, culverts and water channels, while authorities are preparing for possible evacuation of people living along riparian land and other high-risk areas.

The preparedness plan also includes monitoring water levels in rivers and major dams, inspecting bridges, roads and critical utilities in flood-prone areas, and strengthening community-level early-warning systems.

Chiefs, Assistant Chiefs and Nyumba Kumi structures are being used to help deliver information to communities, particularly those in high-risk areas.

Emergency relief supplies, including food, non-food items and emergency medical supplies, are being pre-positioned at strategic locations, while rapid response teams are being strengthened and placed on standby for search and rescue operations, evacuations and post-disaster assessments.

The government has also urged residents living along river banks, riparian reserves, low-lying areas and locations prone to flash floods and landslides to follow evacuation advisories and move to safer ground when directed.

While the WMO warning points to a stronger El Niño, the organisation cautioned that the intensity of the climate event alone does not determine how severe its effects will be in an individual country or region.

WMO said impacts vary according to location and season and can be modified by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.

For September-November 2026, WMO forecasts an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, alongside rainfall patterns associated with the strong Pacific El Niño.

A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to develop, while the equatorial Atlantic basin is forecast to remain generally warm. WMO said these conditions may reinforce, weaken or alter typical El Niño impacts in different regions.

The organisation said national meteorological and hydrological services remain the authoritative source of official warnings and locally relevant climate information.