Linda Mwananchi's Samwel Masaki opens 12-point lead in new Embakasi South poll

Samwel Masaki, an aspirant associated with the Linda Mwananchi Movement, has emerged ahead of incumbent Embakasi South MP Julius Mawathe in a new opinion poll released ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The November 5 survey by Politrack Africa places Masaki at 38.8 per cent, giving him a 12.6-percentage-point lead over Mawathe, who commands 26.2 per cent support.

The findings place ODM aspirant Jared Okello third with 17.6 per cent, followed by Victor Ochieng Ongweno at 12.3 per cent.

A further 3.7 per cent of respondents are undecided, while other candidates collectively account for 1.8 per cent.

The figures offer an early indication of voter preferences in the Nairobi constituency, although they do not establish who will eventually win the parliamentary seat.

Masaki is not a newcomer to Embakasi South politics. He previously contested the constituency's April 2019 parliamentary by-election as an independent candidate after failing to secure the Jubilee Party ticket.

He finished third in the contest, which was won by Mawathe, who secured 21,628 votes against ODM's Irshad Sumra.

Before entering the constituency race, Masaki served as secretary-general of the Jubilee Party Youth League, a position he held from 2013 to 2019.

He later announced his intention to contest the Nairobi senatorial seat in the 2022 General Election.

His latest showing in the Politrack survey places him ahead of the incumbent, several years after his earlier unsuccessful parliamentary bid.

MP Mawathe has represented Embakasi South since 2017, when he first won the parliamentary seat on a Wiper ticket.

His initial election was subsequently nullified by the courts following a petition by Sumra, leading to a by-election in April 2019, which Mawathe won.

He retained the constituency in the 2022 General Election.

An accountant by profession, Mawathe has served in parliamentary committees, including the Departmental Committee on Energy and the Public Accounts Committee.

Embakasi South is one of Nairobi's 17 constituencies and comprises Imara Daima, Kwa Njenga, Kwa Reuben, Kware and Pipeline wards.

The constituency had 167,953 registered voters in the 2022 electoral register, according to figures drawn from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

Its electoral contest extends across communities with distinct local interests, making the eventual race dependent on more than the popularity of individual candidates in the early stages of the campaign.

While Masaki leads in the latest survey, the poll provides a snapshot of the emerging contest, with voter preferences potentially changing as candidates organise their campaigns, parties settle on nominees and the 2027 election approaches.