Why Dagoretti South and Kibra could be 2027's most unpredictable Nairobi races

Two Nairobi constituencies could be among the most closely watched battlegrounds ahead of the 2027 General Election, with new polling data showing that a large share of voters have not yet settled on a candidate.

The Bobea Report inaugural opinion poll places the undecided vote at 33.8% in Dagoretti South and an even higher 36.5% in Kibra, creating significant room for the current standings to shift as the election approaches.

In Dagoretti South, Dennis Waweru leads the race with 28%, narrowly ahead of incumbent John Kiarie, popularly known as KJ, who has 25.7%. Brian Muchene follows with 12.5%.

But the biggest figure in the constituency is the 33.8% who remain undecided.

That means more than one in three respondents has not committed to any of the candidates listed in the survey.

The current leader therefore holds less than a third of the reported support, suggesting that the race remains open rather than firmly settled.

The numbers also put the constituency in a different position from some of the other Nairobi races surveyed by Bobea Report.

In the Nairobi gubernatorial contest, for instance, Babu Owino leads with 26.7%, followed by Johnson Sakaja at 23.2% and James Gakuya at 21.9%. The combined undecided and other category stands at 18.5%.

Dagoretti South therefore has a considerably larger pool of voters who could still influence the eventual outcome.

Kibra presents an even more fluid picture.

Raila Junior leads the constituency race with 21.7%, followed by former footballer McDonald Mariga at 15.3% and Imran Okoth at 11.2%. Mwalimu Orero has 9%, while Timon Odhiambo records 6.3%.

Yet 36.5% of respondents are undecided.

The size of that bloc means the leading candidate currently has the support of only about one in five respondents, while more than a third have not made a choice.

It also makes Kibra particularly difficult to read this early in the electoral cycle.

The findings come as political activity begins to build ahead of the 2027 election, with parties and prospective candidates expected to intensify grassroots mobilisation, messaging and voter engagement.

For candidates in both constituencies, the undecided voters could represent the largest opportunity for gaining ground.

At the same time, the figures should not be interpreted as a prediction of the eventual winners.

The Bobea Report poll was conducted between August 26 and September 2, 2026, using random sampling.

It reports a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1% at a 95% confidence level. The poll's findings represent voter sentiment during that period and could change as campaigns develop and candidates become more prominent.

Still, the size of the undecided blocs makes Dagoretti South and Kibra notable.

In Dagoretti South, the difference between the top two candidates is only 2.3 percentage points.

In Kibra, the gap between the leading candidate and the second-placed contender is 6.4 points, but the undecided bloc is larger than the combined support of the top two candidates.

That leaves both constituencies with considerable room for movement.

Rather than pointing to clear frontrunners, the latest figures suggest that the real contest in these two Nairobi seats may be over the voters who have yet to make up their minds.

With the 2027 election still months away, the candidates who can convince that group could have a significant influence on how these races ultimately unfold.