El Niño returns: Weatherman issues a warning to Kenyans

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says there is an 80% chance that El Niño conditions will develop between June and August 2026, with the likelihood increasing to more than 90% for the second half of the year.

In Kenya, the phenomenon is expected to influence the October-December short rains, although the Kenya Meteorological Department says it's still too early to determine the intensity or location of its effects.

The last El Niño left a trail of destruction

The most recent El Niño event, which affected Kenya between 2023 and 2024, brought weeks of heavy rainfall that triggered widespread flooding, landslides and infrastructure damage.

According to government figures, at least 245 people died, while hundreds of thousands were displaced as floods swept through dozens of counties.

One of the worst tragedies occurred in Mai Mahiu, Nakuru County, where flash floods killed more than 60 people after torrents of water swept through homes in April 2024.

Roads, bridges, schools and businesses were also damaged, with transport disrupted across several parts of the country.

What exactly is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

Although it develops thousands of kilometres away, it influences weather patterns around the world.

In East Africa, it is commonly associated with above-average rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding, landslides and disease outbreaks.

It can also have positive effects, including replenishing dams, improving water supplies and supporting agriculture in some regions.

Should Kenyans be worried?

Not necessarily.

Meteorologists caution that every El Niño is different. A forecast does not automatically mean Kenya will experience flooding on the scale seen in 2024.

The severity of the rains will depend on several climate factors, including conditions in the Indian Ocean and regional weather systems.

For now, experts are encouraging preparedness rather than panic.

The preparation

The devastating floods of 2024 exposed the country's vulnerability to extreme weather, from settlements built along riverbanks to inadequate drainage systems in urban centres.

With the possibility of another El Niño developing later this year, government agencies and county authorities are already being urged to strengthen disaster preparedness and early warning systems.

For most Kenyans, the message is simple: the rains are not here yet - but if forecasts hold, preparing early could make all the difference.