Why the world is holding its breath over the Strait of Hormuz

A narrow waterway between Iran and Oman has, in the span of two weeks, become the most consequential stretch of water on the planet.

The Strait of Hormuz, just 167 kilometres long and as narrow as 39 kilometres at its tightest point, is where roughly 20 per cent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) travels daily.

When it effectively closed on February 28, 2026, the world felt it almost immediately.

Tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel had been escalating after failed nuclear negotiations in Geneva and a 12-day air conflict in 2025.

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran in an operation that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US military bases and Gulf states, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued warnings over radio that no vessel was allowed to pass through the strait.

On March 4, 2026, Iranian forces declared the Strait closed, threatening and carrying out attacks on ships attempting to transit it.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported 10 attacks on ships as of March 8, 2026, killing five crew members on two vessels.

On March 5, the IRGC refined its position, announcing that the closure would apply only to ships from the US, Israel and their Western allies.

By March 13, Iran had allowed passage to a Turkish vessel and two Indian-flagged gas carriers, signalling selective enforcement rather than a total blockade.

By 2025, around 15 million barrels of oil per day were transported through the strait.

Onshore pipelines have a maximum capacity of around 3 million barrels, and all LNG must be transported by ship through the strait.

About 20 per cent of global LNG exports that come from the Persian Gulf are also at risk, primarily those originating from Qatar.

QatarEnergy declared force majeure on all LNG shipments on March 4, 2026, after Iranian attacks on its Ras Laffan facilities, removing 20 per cent of global LNG supply from the market overnight.

Global crude prices responded sharply.

As of March 14, global crude prices remained above USD100 per barrel despite the US and Western allies announcing the biggest-ever release of emergency reserves.

The International Energy Agency separately announced the release of 400 million barrels from strategic stocks, a move without precedent.

As of March 10, Saudi Arabia increasingly diverted oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu via the East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, while the UAE diverted oil via the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline to the port of Fujairah.

However, the combined capacity of these pipelines cannot match the volume shipped through the strait, leaving a deficit of about 12 million barrels per day.

Kenya imports all its refined petroleum.

The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) announced on March 15 that retail prices would remain unchanged for the next month, with petrol at Sh178.28 per litre and diesel at Sh166.54 in Nairobi.

EPRA stated the crisis had not yet affected the cost of received cargoes, which were shipped before the conflict began when crude averaged USD63.06 per barrel in February.

That protection is temporary.

The effects of supply disruptions and the surge in global prices are likely to be felt in Kenya in April.

Murban crude rose to Sh11,916 (USD92.13) per barrel on March 12 from Sh9,862 (USD76.25) the previous week, according to a Central Bank of Kenya bulletin issued on March 14.

Geoffrey Aori, CEO of the Regional Association of Energy Regulators for Eastern and Southern Africa, noted that Kenya has 20 days of reserve capacity.

He warned that if the current fuel shortage and price levels persist, it could knock three percentage points off economic growth across Africa.

According to EPRA, Kenya is exploring alternative fuel supplies from India and Oman, with deliveries expected in early April.

The conflict has no clear resolution timeline, and any cargo that does not load within Kenya's 30-day window will translate directly into price increases and potential shortages at the pump.