Kenya’s food import problem: Can irrigation turn the tide?

At the Agriculture and Food Systems Transformation Summit in Nairobi on October 8, Ruto called for an overhaul of Kenya's food production system, citing a Sh3 trillion food import bill.

He highlighted edible oils, fats, wheat and rice among the products weighing on the country's import dependence.

The headline figure needs clarification, however.

The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics' 2026 Economic Survey puts Kenya's total imports at Sh2.773 trillion in 2025.

Under its broad economic-category classification, food and beverage imports were about Sh252.85 billion.

Other food-related commodities, including animal and vegetable oils, are tabulated separately.

The Sh3 trillion figure is therefore not reconciled with the published annual trade measure.

The government has not provided a detailed breakdown alongside the summit statement explaining its scope, so it should not be presented as a verified annual food-import total without that clarification.

The wider dependence on imported staples is real.

KNBS data shows Kenya imported approximately 2.24 million tonnes of unmilled wheat, 786,000 tonnes of rice and 468,000 tonnes of maize in 2025.

Sugar, molasses and honey imports totalled about 521,000 tonnes.

These volumes help explain why the government is looking beyond short-term food relief towards increasing domestic production.

Farmers need reliable water

Most Kenyan farming remains exposed to rainfall patterns.

When rains fail or arrive at the wrong time, production falls, food prices can rise and the country may need to import additional supplies.

The Ministry of Irrigation says about 500,000 of Kenya's 8.9 million registered farmers currently benefit from irrigation.

The government wants to bring another 1.5 million acres of farmland under irrigation, covering both large commercial farms and smallholder producers.

Irrigation can make production more predictable, allow farmers to grow crops beyond a single rainy season and support higher-value crops.

It can also help reduce the severity of drought-related losses.

But adding irrigated acreage requires more than building dams or canals.

Farmers need access to water infrastructure, affordable pumping where necessary, suitable seed, fertiliser, extension services and reliable markets.

Poorly managed schemes can also create water conflicts or leave farmers unable to afford the cost of using the infrastructure.

Fertiliser is part of the equation

The government says its fertiliser subsidy has reduced the price of a 50-kilogramme bag from roughly Sh7,000 to Sh2,000 at National Cereals and Produce Board depots.

It reported distributing more than 34 million subsidised bags and registering 7.2 million crop farmers, alongside three million livestock keepers.

The programme is intended to lower production costs and make farming more profitable.

But cheaper fertiliser alone cannot guarantee higher output.

Results also depend on soil quality, rainfall or irrigation, timely delivery, good farming practices and the price farmers receive when they sell their produce.

For the same reason, reducing food imports requires crop-specific planning.

Kenya cannot assume that every imported commodity can be produced domestically at a competitive price, in sufficient volumes and without creating new environmental pressures.

Food is lost before it reaches the market

Production is only one side of the problem.

At the October summit, Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja said about 40 per cent of food produced in Kenya is lost or wasted.

That was a figure cited by the Governor and should be treated as an estimate, but it points to a major issue in the food chain.

Perishable produce can lose value because of poor roads, inadequate cold storage, limited aggregation facilities, weak packaging and a lack of predictable buyers.

Farmers may harvest a good crop but still struggle to sell it at a price that covers production costs.

The Trade Ministry has said that 17 County Aggregation and Industrial Centres are under construction, with eight ready for finishing.

These facilities are intended to support the processing, packaging and branding of agricultural produce before it reaches local or export markets.

Can Kenya cut imports?

The answer depends on whether the country can coordinate these different parts of the food system.

Irrigation can help stabilise production; fertiliser and seed support can improve yields; storage and processing can reduce losses; and better market access can make domestic farming more attractive.

The government is also dealing with a growing population.

At the summit, Ruto noted that Kenya's population has grown from about seven million at independence to roughly 55 million today and is projected to reach 95 million by 2063.

The demand for food will therefore continue to rise.

Reducing reliance on imports will require higher productivity and a stronger supply chain, not merely more land under cultivation.

Kenya's food-security ambition is clear.

The more immediate test is whether planned irrigation, farmer support and post-harvest investment translate into more affordable food and reliable incomes for producers.