From unconditional support to tough demands: What ODM wants from Ruto in 2027 deal

The political marriage between President William Ruto and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) appears to be entering a critical phase, with the party's support increasingly crystallising into a set of demands touching on governance, political inclusion, economic reforms and the implementation of key commitments.

From the initial declarations of support without conditions, ODM voices are converging in singing one chorus: Political support for Ruto’s re-election must be grounded in a pre-election coalition agreement detailing what the party stands to gain.

Random demands dished out on political platforms across the country, at media interviews and on social media found their place at the Jacaranda rally, signalling a shift in the political dynamics defining the union.

ODM is seeking assurances that its backing will translate into tangible policy gains, a place in the next government and the running mate slot rather than remain a political arrangement built on rhetoric.

ODM Deputy Party Leader and Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir was clear in his demand that the running mate slot must be reserved for the party as a condition for supporting Ruto’s re-election and took the conversation further by fronting Ali Hassan Joho as a possible contender.

Kisii Governor Simba Arati echoed the same, making it clear that the party will pursue its interests with conditions that will guarantee the party its place in government.

Arati also leaned on the implementation of key commitments that shaped Raila Odinga's legacy, insisting that the party would pursue an agreement that encompasses social justice, a course that was close to Raila's heart.

“Kuna watu wanasema kwamba tusimwekee William Ruto conditions. Sisi kama ODM tunasema kwamba mapatano lazima tutaweka. Yeye na bibi yake na mtoto wake wasiweke mapatano. Lakini sis kama chama cha ODM kushirikiana na UDA lazima tutafanya. Sisi kama chama cha ODM tutasimama kwa zile haki baba alikuwa amesimamia.

Even die-hard Ruto re-election advocate and Homabay Town MP Opondo Kaluma who has in the past been clear that support for Ruto should be unconditional appears to have learnt the new tune and switched his position with a statement on X warning that the party will go for an “arm and a leg”.

@TheODMparty now have the votes to guarantee President Ruto’s re-election, with over 80% win. The party is going for an arm and a leg in its pre-coalition deal with @UDAKenya. Prepare for tough demands and hard talks ending with a written pre-election agreement.

Pushback by party loyalists and a section of leaders who were reluctant over the party’s position and the possibility of handing over Raila Odinga’s political empire to Ruto for a song may have informed the current posture.

Solid voices from within the party hierarchy cautioned that by throwing itself too easily at Ruto and his United Democratic Alliance, the party risked being taken for granted.

Given the unpredictable nature of elections and the possibility of some politicians losing their seats, the negotiation for a share of the next government should Ruto win the contest was inevitable, as each seeks to secure their future in the next dispensation.

Party supporters were also critical of the price of the support for Ruto, with critics repeatedly messaging that the party may have been auctioned, with a few leaders pocketing money.

It is against this backdrop that party stalwarts increasingly adopted a tune that grew louder with each passing day and crystallised into solid demands which dominated yesterday’s rally at Jacaranda grounds, even as the party leadership assured supporters that negotiations would be done through the relevant party structures.