Fact check: Will this August be colder than last year’s, and is Aphelion really behind it?

A viral message circulating on social media platforms like WhatsApp claims that Kenya will experience unusually cold weather until August 22, 2025;

This cold spell, the message alleges, is caused by the 'Aphelion phenomenon,' which will supposedly also increase the Earth's distance from the Sun by 66%.

The claim further warns of health risks like coughs and fever, advising people to boost their immunity. This fact-check examines the science behind these assertions.

Aphelion is simply the point at which the earth is farthest from the sun. Aphelion occurs once each year.

This year, aphelion fell in early July, when the Earth was about 152.1 million kilometres from the Sun.

Its opposite is perihelion, when the earth is closest to the sun in its orbit.

The claims made in the viral message are incorrect on multiple scientific grounds;

1. Aphelion distances and timing. Earth does not orbit 90 million kilometres from the Sun. Its average distance is about 149.6 million kilometres. In 2025, Earth reached aphelion on July 4 at about 152.1 million kilometres from the Sun. The closest point, perihelion, occurred in January at about 147.1 million kilometres. The difference is around 5 million kilometres, only about 3.4 per cent, not the claimed 66 per cent.

2. What causes seasons? Seasons are not caused by Earth’s changing distance from the Sun but by its 23.5 degree axial tilt. This tilt determines how sunlight falls on each hemisphere during the year. The small difference in distance between aphelion and perihelion has little effect on temperatures. In fact, the Northern Hemisphere is farthest from the Sun during its summer.

READ ALSO: 5 effective tips to stay hydrated, boost water intake in cold weather

Aphelion itself does not drive seasons or short-term weather.

The small annual variation in Earth–Sun distance alters the total solar energy by only a few per cent and is not sufficient to produce sudden, country-wide cooling in a single month.

Authoritative explanations from space and meteorological agencies make this clear.

READ ALSO: Beef bone broth benefits for cold weather: Easy homemade recipe

What does control year-to-year temperature and weather in Kenya is a combination of regional and global climate drivers and short-term variability.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean state including the Indian Ocean Dipole, and local atmospheric circulation patterns influence rainfall, winds and temperature across East Africa.

As of mid-2025 climate monitoring centres reported ENSO-neutral conditions, with some models indicating a possible weak La Niña later in the year rather than an established cooling event.

These conditions can modulate seasonal expectations but do not make aphelion the causal factor.

READ ALSO: 7 ways cold weather affects your car, motorbike performance

Conclusion: aphelion is real, but it is not the reason for a colder August in Kenya.

The correct approach for everyday planning is to follow official forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department and notices from health authorities.

Verdict: The claim that the Aphelion phenomenon is responsible for cold weather in August is false.