Cycle behind high tomato prices and why the pattern keeps repeating

Buying tomatoes in Kenya right now feels different. What used to be a basic, everyday item is suddenly expensive, with some going for Sh25 – Sh30 each.

This isn’t just a random spike. It’s the result of several things happening at the same time, from weather shocks to deeper structural gaps in how food is produced and distributed.

The biggest factor is weather. Kenya is currently experiencing heavy long rains, and in some areas, flooding. These floods have damaged farms and disrupted normal planting and harvesting cycles.

Tomatoes are particularly vulnerable to excess rain. Too much water encourages diseases and causes fruits to rot before harvest. Farmers and traders say the rains have significantly reduced the amount reaching markets.

With lower production, supply has dropped sharply. Data shows prices have already been rising, with tomatoes increasing from about Sh99.60 per kg in March to Sh108.60 in April 2026.

At the wholesale level, crates that previously sold for around Sh6,000–8,000 are now going for as much as Sh17,000 – Sh18,000.

That shortage is what’s now being felt at the retail level, where individual tomatoes are selling at unusually high prices.

Flooded roads and damaged infrastructure have made it harder to move produce from farms to markets. In some cases, transport is delayed or more expensive, which adds to the final price consumers pay.

So even when tomatoes are available in rural areas, getting them into towns like Nairobi becomes a challenge.

This spike is also linked to what happened earlier in the year. Around January, there was a glut, with too many tomatoes in the market. Prices dropped so low that some farmers made losses and chose not to plant again immediately.

Now, a few months later, that reduced planting is showing up as a shortage. Combined with bad weather, it has made the price increase sharper.