Why chapati prices in Kenya could rise despite cheaper wheat globally

For many Kenyan families, chapati is no longer a food reserved for weekends and celebrations. It has become a regular part of meals in urban homes, school lunch boxes, roadside eateries and small restaurants.

That is why a warning over delays in wheat import approvals could soon be felt far beyond the milling industry, potentially affecting the price of chapatis, mandazis, bread and other everyday wheat products.

The concern is striking because global wheat prices have generally been lower this year than they were in 2024.

In theory, cheaper wheat on the international market should help keep flour prices stable.

Yet industry players say delays in issuing C60 import approvals, the permits that allow millers to bring wheat into the country under the Duty Remission Scheme, could create a local cost problem even when the global market is relatively favourable.

Every day that wheat consignments remain uncleared adds storage, demurrage and financing costs, expenses that eventually work their way through the supply chain and are often passed on to consumers.

A C60 is a government control document issued to approved millers, allowing them to import specified quantities of wheat for processing into flour for the Kenyan market.

Before receiving these approvals, millers are required to purchase available locally produced wheat under the Local Wheat Purchase Programme.

Millers say they have already committed to buying local wheat at Sh5,100 per 90kg bag, up from Sh4,750, but some approvals are still pending.

While that may sound like a technical dispute between businesses and regulators, the effects could be felt in places where flour is used in small quantities every day.

Consider a roadside chapati vendor in Nairobi, Kisumu or Nakuru who uses two 2kg packets of flour daily. If a packet rises by just Sh10, the vendor’s daily flour bill increases by Sh20.

Over a month, that is about Sh600 in additional costs.

For a small business operating on thin margins, the options are limited:

• reduce the size of chapatis,

• increase the selling price,

• use lower-quality ingredients, or

• absorb the loss and earn less income.

A seller who currently makes 50 chapatis a day may need to add Sh2 to Sh5 per chapati simply to maintain the same profit margin.

That may appear small to some consumers, but for customers who buy chapatis daily as an affordable source of carbohydrates, the increase quickly adds up.

The impact would not stop with chapatis. Mandazi vendors, especially those serving commuters in bus parks and estates, depend heavily on wheat flour.

A slight increase in flour costs can affect the price of a Sh10 mandazi, one of the most price-sensitive products in the informal food market.

Small hotels and kibandas face a similar challenge. Many prepare chapatis, maandazi, pancakes and other wheat-based foods in large volumes.

Unlike large restaurant chains, these businesses have little room to negotiate better prices from suppliers.

A hotel owner serving 100 customers a day could see flour expenses rise by several hundred shillings each week.

In a business where cooking oil, electricity, rent and wages are already rising, flour becomes another pressure point.

Kenya remains heavily dependent on imported wheat. According to data from the Agricultural and Food Authority (AFA), the country requires between 2.2 million and 2.4 million tonnes of wheat annually, while local production supplies only a small fraction of that demand.

This dependence means any disruption in imports, whether caused by global events or local administrative delays, can affect the availability and cost of flour.