What Infotrak poll signals for Kenya & key issues that will decide 2027 race

The race for State House is beginning to take shape with a new opinion poll revealing decisive shift in what Kenyans say will guide their choice of president in 2027.

The poll conducted by research firm Infotrak established that issues that speak directly to daily survival will inform voter decisions with those polled cutting through political noise to expose the priorities are on the minds of Kenyans with voters making it clear that grand promises and political rhetoric alone will not be enough.

The survey shows a more discerning electorate that is able to sift through political slogans and familiar faces to make leadership choices informed by lived experiences with rising cost of living, job creation and leadership integrity emerging as decisive forces.

The cost of living tops the list of factors shaping voter choices in 2027 presidential election at 46 per cent, sending a clear message to the political class.

Anti-corruption and the mess in Kenya’s healthcare system is also in the minds of voters with 27 per cent of those polled indicating that t will shape their choice.

Education (26%) youth unemployment (25%), leadership integrity (23%) economic management (21%), security (16%), devolution (11%) and affordable housing (3%) close the list of top factors that will inform voter choices in that order.

The survey reveals a clear shift in voter preferences with young voters demanding jobs and opportunity, households prioritising the cost of living over ideology and communities weighing integrity and track record above ethnic or regional loyalties.

Kenya’s politics has for decades been shaped by personalities, regional alliances and grand promises that rarely live beyond the ballot, only for the same faces to turn up with a new set of promises at the next electoral cycle.

The findings of the survey serve as both a warning and a guide: Kenyans are watching closely, and their vote will be driven less by who shouts the loudest and more by who offers credible solutions.

Over time, voters have become more pragmatic and less patient with empty promises as they hold their leaders accountable and call out those who fail to represent them accurately.

Case in point is the gen-Z led protests that saw President Ruto change his mind on the Finance Bill 2025 when leaders largely ignored the concerns raised by Kenyans and bull-dozed their way through, only for voters to assert their position and force the President to make a U-turn.

President William Ruto remains the most preferred Presidential candidate at 28% with Matiang’i (13%), Kalonzo (12%) Babu Owino (7%).

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino is tipped to be the next Luo kingpin, pollin at 31% with his closest challenger being ODM party leader Dr Oburu Odinga at 10%, followed by Gladys Wanga (7%) and James Orengo (4%).

Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi and Interior PS Dr Raymond Omollo polled at 2% with Winnie Odinga, John Mbadi, Anyang’ Nyong’o, Miguna Miguna and Ochillo Ayacko all receiving 1%.

The survey was conducted through quantitative interviews using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) between December 19 and 20, 2025.

A sample size of 1,000 respondents drawn from all 47 counties and across the country’s eight regions took part in the survey.