Somalia’s political crisis is spilling into Kenya and Ethiopia

Somalia’s political crisis is no longer just a battle in Mogadishu.

The country is locked in a dispute over constitutional changes, elections and the balance of power between the federal government and its member states.

But with tensions now spilling into the security sphere, neighbouring Kenya and Ethiopia have strong reasons to be concerned.

At the centre of the dispute is President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s push for constitutional and electoral reforms.

In March, Somalia’s parliament approved changes that could delay elections and potentially extend the president’s term by a year.

Opposition groups and federal states including Puntland and Jubaland have challenged the process.

The disagreement has increasingly moved beyond political statements.

Recent tensions around Baidoa, where forces aligned with different political camps have confronted each other, have highlighted the risk of political disputes turning into armed conflict.

That is particularly worrying for a country still fighting Al-Shabaab and gradually taking over security responsibilities from international forces.

Kenya border-alert high

For Nairobi, instability in Somalia has direct consequences.

Kenya shares a long border with Somalia and has repeatedly faced attacks linked to Al-Shabaab.

The militant group remains active in Somalia and has also stepped up operations in northeastern Kenya, making developments across the border a domestic security concern.

Kenya has also played a significant role in Somalia’s security operations, giving Nairobi a direct interest in a political settlement that does not weaken the federal system or distract Somali forces from the fight against militants.

The concern is simple: a more divided Somalia creates more space for Al-Shabaab.

Ethiopia faces a similar risk

Ethiopia’s stakes are equally high.

The two countries share a long and politically sensitive border, while Ethiopian troops have been part of regional efforts to support Somalia’s security.

But that military role is changing as Somalia assumes greater responsibility for its own security.

That transition is happening at a difficult moment.

The African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia, AUSSOM, is already facing uncertainty over funding and the pace of the security handover.

Analysts warn that any reduction in counterterrorism pressure could give Al-Shabaab an opportunity to expand its operations.

Then came another significant development on August 28.

Uganda’s military chief, General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, announced that Uganda plans to withdraw all its troops from Somalia by August 1, 2027, potentially ending nearly two decades of Ugandan military involvement.

However, the timetable has not yet been formally confirmed by Uganda’s government.

Uganda has been one of the main contributors to African Union security operations in Somalia since 2007.

Its planned exit would add another layer of uncertainty to an already difficult transition.

A Somalia crisis with a regional reach

Somalia therefore faces several pressures at once: a contested political transition, tensions between Mogadishu and federal states, an active Al-Shabaab insurgency and a gradual reduction of foreign military support.

For Kenya and Ethiopia, the concern is not simply who wins Somalia’s next political contest.

It is whether Somalia can resolve its political differences without creating another security vacuum on the doorstep of East Africa.