Ruto’s narrow wins: What by-elections exposed on the battle for 2027 supremacy

President William Ruto and his United Democratic Alliance party are basking in the glory of electoral victory in the recent by-elections which humbled Rigathi Gachagua and Kalonzo Musyoka while offering a much-needed boost to the broad-based government.

The contest was not just about the candidates eyeing the elective seat but was a battle for supremacy and popularity by various outfits preparing for 2027 elections.

The by-elections drew the attention of top political actors and national leaders, turning local races political battles with political patronage, state-sponsored tours, projects and millions pumped for victory.

Despite the heavy investment by UDA and other outfits, the margins were razor-thin, and are perhaps indication of what to expect in 2027.

In Mbeere North, what UDA hoped would be a walk in the pack turned into a political battle that was decided by a very narrow margin with the united opposition alleging foul play and casting doubts on Leonard Muthende’s victory.

Pundits opine that the race reflected the reality on the ground that what was once President Ruto’s stronghold is now a toss-up which could go either way with the united opposition celebrating the gains made despite not winning the seat.

While the president’s men have boldly proclaimed that UDA and President Ruto enjoy silent support across the region as demonstrated by Muthende's victory, the razor-sharp margin indicates that outcome of the the opposition may be eating into this support.

The entire UDA machinery was deployed to Mbeere North to avert what would have been a humbling loss.

That Deputy President Kithure Kindiki camped in Mbeere North for several days, holding at least 50 meetings and attending 17 political rallies in a period of just 9 days is a clear indication of the high stakes.

The effort, personnel and financial resources poured in Mbeere North and elsewhere to win over the electorate is a reflection of what will be needed to secure victory for its candidates across 290 constituencies and 47 counties with each electing a Woman Representative, a senator and a governor.

2027 will also see UDA bigshots fighting their own political battles with little time and resources to spare to help others, a situation that will be cutting across all political outfits.

As the dust settles, it is a time for the various outfits tor reflect on what went wrong, the gains to build on and craft a strategy that may yield better results.

A reality that many have pointed out is that real popularity and support lies not in the crowds that attend political rallies chanting slogans, but in the number of voters who can be convinced by a solid plan to vote for a party’s candidate.

President Ruto and his UDA brigade have also given the country a number of political phrases and countless promises. Similarly, the united opposition has given the country several political slogans with “wantam” being a popular one.

It takes more than these to win an election and have dedicated leaders of integrity who serve the electorate and uplift the lives of voters.