Political questions hanging over Ruto's Naivasha retreat

Exactly one year before Kenyans return to the ballot, President William Ruto and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Oburu Odinga have taken their broad-based partnership to Lake Naivasha Resort.

This time, however, the discussions are not only about governing together. They are increasingly being viewed through the lens of a possible joint electoral strategy for 2027.

The three-day retreat, which began on Sunday, August 9, brings together governors, deputy governors and Members of Parliament from both the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

President Ruto and Mr Odinga are expected to join the wider meeting on Monday.

Officially, the agenda includes implementation of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report, compensation for victims of past protests, and discussions around Vision 2060.

Politically, the retreat carries much heavier implications because it comes amid growing speculation that the cooperation agreement signed in March 2025 could evolve into a formal electoral alliance.

The timing appears carefully calculated. The Kenya Kwanza administration is facing sustained criticism from opposition figures and emerging political movements, including the Linda Mwananchi campaign, which has sought to mobilise public dissatisfaction ahead of the 2027 election.

National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah outlined the programme as beginning with Sunday evening check-ins, followed by a full day of deliberations on Monday and a joint press briefing later in the afternoon.

Minority Leader Junet Mohammed also circulated a memo to members of the Broad-Based Parliamentary Group, signalling that the retreat was intended to address matters extending beyond routine parliamentary coordination.

One of the most significant developments is the reported formation of technical teams from both the United Democratic Alliance and the Orange Democratic Movement to begin work on a possible joint 2027 manifesto.

That would represent a major shift from the current arrangement, which has largely focused on cooperation in Parliament and Cabinet.

The discussions suggest that both sides are exploring whether they can present voters with a shared policy platform rather than negotiate power after the election.

Odinga has publicly argued that political parties should seek power through a direct electoral mandate rather than through post-election arrangements, a position that has added weight to the ongoing talks.

The most sensitive issue remains the running-mate position.

Senior figures within the United Democratic Alliance continue to maintain that President Ruto is likely to retain Deputy President Kithure Kindiki as his preferred running mate.

Leaders within ODM, however, are reportedly pushing for a broader power-sharing arrangement that would give the party a more substantial stake in any future coalition government.

The debate intensified after Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya was endorsed by some Orange Democratic Movement leaders during a party event in late July as a potential candidate for the deputy presidency.

Another contentious issue is zoning, the informal allocation of electoral territories among coalition partners.

The Orange Democratic Movement is understood to be seeking assurances that its traditional strongholds will not face aggressive challenges from United Democratic Alliance candidates in the 2027 election.

For the United Democratic Alliance, accepting such an arrangement would mean limiting competition in counties and constituencies where it may wish to expand its influence.