Homa Bay becomes battleground, as ODM's succession war spills into the streets

When violence broke out along the roads leading into Homa Bay on Sunday, the story was never really about a single rally.

It was about a party at war with itself. The Linda Mwananchi movement, fronted by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, marched into what has long been considered ODM's most reliable stronghold, and it did so against fierce resistance from the very party it claims to belong to.

The confrontation traces back to the death of ODM founder Raila Odinga in October last year, which left the party without the figure who had held its competing wings together.

Two camps have since emerged. One is led by Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga, who now heads the mainstream ODM structure and has anchored the party firmly within President William Ruto's broad based government.

The other is the breakaway Linda Mwananchi faction, which accuses the Oburu wing of abandoning ODM's traditional opposition role in exchange for proximity to State House.

On the ground in Homa Bay, that fight has a face.

Governor Gladys Wanga, who doubles as ODM's national chairperson, spent the days before the rally crisscrossing the county to counter it directly, at one point camping in Suba South, the base of Linda Mwananchi ally MP Caroli Omondi, to urge residents to reject what she called rebel politics.

She argued that ODM's partnership with Ruto had delivered development the region could not afford to jeopardise, and warned that a large turnout for Sifuna's team could send the wrong signal to the national government.

Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma took an even sharper tone, dismissing Linda Mwananchi's one term Wantam messaging and declaring that the constituency remained firmly behind the broad based arrangement.

Both Wanga and Kaluma were accused by Linda Mwananchi leaders of orchestrating the attacks that disrupted the rally, an allegation they have denied.

What makes this more than a personality clash is the stakes attached to it. Nyanza's political weight has historically flowed through whoever controls ODM there, and both factions understand that 2027 will be decided in part by who can credibly claim that inheritance.

For Wanga's camp, the argument is that loyalty to the broad based government protects the region's access to resources.

For Sifuna, Orengo and Owino, the argument is that ODM's leadership has traded away the party's independence, and that Linda Mwananchi represents its true opposition instinct.

The barricades, burning tyres and attacks on convoys are not incidental to that argument, they are evidence of how high tempers have risen inside a party still negotiating who its next generation of leaders will be.

Whether investigators can establish who sponsored Sunday's disruptions will matter less, in the end, than whether ODM can survive the succession fight playing out in public across Nyanza's roads.