Kenyans feel economically strained, but are warming to Ruto’s broad-based government- TIFA Report

Support for President William Ruto’s "Broad-Based Government" (BBG) has doubled over the last few months, even as the nation reels from the sudden death of opposition icon Raila Odinga and a deepening sense of economic despair.

A new national survey released today by TIFA Research reveals a startling paradox in the Kenyan psyche: while 68% of the country believes Kenya is headed in the "wrong direction," the controversial political alliance between the ruling Kenya Kwanza and the opposition ODM party is gaining traction.

The survey, conducted between November 10 and 17, shows that public approval for the BBG, an arrangement that saw senior ODM leaders appointed to the Cabinet earlier this year, has surged from 22% in May to 44% in November. 

Opposition to the deal, which peaked at 64% in August following a period of intense anti-government protests, has now cooled to 48%.

TIFA researchers suggest this shift may be influenced by the passing of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga while receiving treatment in India.

"This raises questions as to whether this arrangement has received a positive 'sympathy' vote in the wake of Raila's passing," the report notes, though it cautions that the boost could be a "flash in the pan".

Despite the warming attitudes toward the government's structure, Kenyans’ lived experiences remain grim. 

Two-thirds of households (67%) report that their personal economic situation has worsened since the 2022 election.

The survey highlights a sharp "perception gap" driven by political alignment:

BBG Supporters: 65% of those who support the government's new broad-based structure report that their economic situation is improving.

BBG Opponents: Conversely, 79% of those who oppose the alliance say their financial lives have gotten worse.

"The salience of political alignment is clear," TIFA stated, noting that 84% of those who oppose the BBG view the country’s direction as "wrong," compared to just 51% of government supporters.

For the average Kenyan, the "most serious problem" facing the nation isn't political instability, it's survival. 

Economic issues, including unemployment and high taxes, were cited by 67% of respondents as their primary concern. Corruption followed as a distant second at 20%.

The report also tracked the transition of the government’s new Social Health Authority (SHA). 

While 55% of Kenyans have registered for the program, satisfaction remains tied to politics. 

BBG supporters are nearly twice as likely to be "very satisfied" with the services than those in the opposition.

Mt. Kenya emerged as the most disillusioned region in the country, with a staggering 83% of residents stating the country is on the wrong track. 

This marks a significant erosion of confidence in a region that was once a political bedrock for the current administration. 

In contrast, the Northern region showed the most optimism, with 40% of residents viewing the country’s direction as "right".

As Kenya looks toward 2027, the TIFA report suggests that while the "Broad-Based Government" has successfully "de-fanged" the official parliamentary opposition, it has yet to conquer the economic hunger that remains the greatest threat to its longevity.