What’s driving the do-or-die politics in the Mbeere North by-election?

The Mbeere North by-election has quickly turned into one of the most intense political fights of the season because it carries far more weight than a routine mini-poll. 

What should have been a simple vote to pick a new MP has now snowballed into a heated battle for power, influence, and survival, both locally and nationally.

For President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza, the race has become a measure of strength in a region that overwhelmingly backed him in 2022. 

Losing a seat in Embu, one of its traditional strongholds, would send a loud message that the ground has shifted in Mount Kenya. 

It would also embarrass senior leaders like Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, UDA Chairperson and Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire and CS Geoffrey Ruku, who have spent weeks insisting the coalition still commands the mountain. 

That pressure alone has turned the campaign into a high-stakes contest.

Local politics have added even more fire. The by-election is now a silent tug-of-war between powerful figures like former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who are fighting to prove who truly controls the ground. 

Every rally, every endorsement, every mobilisation drive has become a show of dominance. For some of these kingpins, a loss would weaken their influence heading into 2027, while a win would reassert their authority and lock in their political future. The seat has become a turf war disguised as a by-election.

Beyond politics, the mood of the voters is another reason the race feels like life-or-death. The cost of living crisis, frustrations over taxes, and a growing sense that promises remain unfulfilled have pushed many residents to consider the vote as their moment to send a message to the government. 

A by-election offers low political risk, so a protest vote here would be a warning shot to the government without destabilising national leadership. That possibility has made the ruling side even more aggressive in its push to retain control.

National parties are treating the race like a referendum on their relevance. A win for UDA would be used to argue that Mount Kenya still stands firmly with the government, while an opposition or independent victory would fuel the narrative that the region is drifting away.

With 2027 slowly creeping into view, no party wants to walk away with a loss that could be weaponised against them.

The race is also happening at a time when political alliances are shifting, and internal disagreements inside Kenya Kwanza have spilled into the open.

The by-election gives voters the first real chance to show whose side they are taking after months of tension and subtle power plays. 

For leaders caught in the middle of these realignments, this isn’t just another election; it is a survival test.

All these factors combined have turned the Mbeere North by-election into a symbolic but powerful battleground. 

At stake are political bragging rights, regional dominance, control of constituency resources, and national momentum. 

That is why every camp is treating the contest as a do-or-die fight, and why the rest of the country is watching closely.