Can Kenya become a first-world country in 1 generation? Here’s what experts say

As Kenyan leaders increasingly reference Singapore as a model for rapid development, policymakers, academics, and young professionals are interrogating what “First World” status would actually mean for Kenya, and whether the comparison holds up beyond speeches and skylines.

In the 1960s, Kenya and Singapore stood at roughly similar economic starting points. Six decades later, Singapore is a high-income economy with some of the world’s most efficient systems, while Kenya remains a lower-middle-income country grappling with food insecurity, unemployment, and rising living costs.

The question dominating policy forums is no longer whether Kenya can emulate Singapore, but what must fundamentally change for such a transformation to occur within a generation.

Speaking during a Youth Assembly Platform (YAP) debate, Kenya Power Chair Joy Masinde argued that First World status is defined less by visible infrastructure and more by functional systems that support quality of life.

“A First World country is where systems work so people can live well, and still have time to enjoy life,” Masinde said.

Entrepreneur and start-up coach Michael Kirui framed it through equity. “Someone born in Turkana should not have to move to Nairobi because certain things only exist in Nairobi,” he said, adding that shared prosperity is the true benchmark of development.

Panellists identified agriculture as a make-or-break sector in Kenya’s push toward First World status, warning that structural failures, not just climate shocks, continue to undermine food security.

Despite increasingly erratic rainfall, Kenya remains heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture. 

Chancellor of the Cooperative University Dr Bernard Chitunga challenged the tendency to blame climate change alone, arguing that the country underutilises existing natural resources.

“Economic transformation requires a mindset shift, from praying for rain to managing water,” he said.

Data cited during the debate illustrated the scale of vulnerability. Maize production declined by 6.1 per cent in 2024 following erratic rainfall, while less than five per cent of Kenya’s arable land is under irrigation.

A contrasting model was highlighted in Machakos County’s Yatta sub-county, where farmers in a semi-arid region adopted household water pans to harvest and store rainwater. According to Masinde, the initiative has enabled more than 8,000 farmers to grow export crops year-round, even during drought.

The approach, described as “brain over rain,” has helped communities abandon aid dependency and stabilise incomes.

Kirui pointed to land fragmentation driven by inheritance practices, where productive farms are subdivided into uneconomical plots. This reduces efficiency and bargaining power, feeding directly into the middleman problem that forces farmers to sell cheaply at the farm gate while food prices spike in urban markets.

In Kiambu County, once among Kenya’s most fertile regions, a significant portion of agricultural land has been lost to unplanned development, shrinking food-producing zones near major markets.

Dr Duncan Ojwang' linked these failures to inequality, arguing that a “First World” Kenya cannot coexist with rising hunger and uneven access. 

While a small segment already enjoys a “Singapore-level” lifestyle, most households are struggling with food prices that have surged over the past two years.

The panel concluded that restoring dignity to farming is essential, calling for expanded irrigation, technology adoption, cooperative marketing to bypass middlemen, and strict land-use zoning.

Despite Kenya’s reputation as a global leader in renewable energy, Masinde offered a cautionary note on affordability.

“It is not cheap to produce power anywhere on earth,” she said, explaining that renewable sources such as geothermal and solar require heavy upfront investment in technology and storage.

She noted that Kenya Power functions largely as a collector for the sector, with electricity bills reflecting costs across generation, transmission, and regulation.

The discussion also turned inward, highlighting vandalism as a major but often overlooked economic burden. Masinde revealed that 500 transformers were vandalised in the first half of the current financial year alone, each costing approximately Sh2 million to replace.

“That cost ultimately comes back to the consumer,” she said, urging Kenyans to abandon illegal connections and infrastructure sabotage. “We are shooting ourselves in the foot.”

With the government targeting a 10,000-megawatt expansion, Dr Chitunga emphasised the need for off-balance-sheet financing. He cited Cooperative University’s planned 40-megawatt solar project, valued at about $50 million, as a working model.

The project, developed through a partnership with a Chinese firm, will supply power to the national grid without relying on taxpayer funding. Chitunga argued that such financing models are critical given the Treasury’s limited capacity to absorb additional debt.

Modern infrastructure emerged as another foundational pillar, though panellists stressed that funding models matter as much as physical assets.

To accelerate development without deepening sovereign debt, the government has established the National Infrastructure Fund (NIF), alongside a Sovereign Wealth Fund. Together, the vehicles aim to mobilise Sh5 trillion over a decade.

Structured as a limited liability company, the NIF is designed to attract private capital and pension funds, reducing reliance on taxation and external borrowing. Officials estimate that every Sh1 invested could unlock up to Sh10 in additional financing.

Dr Duncan Ojwang' noted that Singapore’s success was built not only on infrastructure investment but on disciplined land use, public housing, and long-term planning, areas where Kenya continues to struggle with vandalism, informal settlements, and policy inconsistency.

Human capital development, widely credited as the cornerstone of Singapore’s rise, featured prominently in the debate.

Dr Chitunga defended Kenya’s education system as globally competitive, citing the success of Kenyan professionals abroad. However, a growing skills mismatch remains.

While Kenya produces more than two million graduates annually, only about 800,000 are absorbed into the formal job market.

Kirui criticised the system for prioritising theory over application, noting that many graduates struggle to communicate ideas or solve practical problems during interviews.

A 2025 SAP survey underscored the gap, with 86 per cent of Kenyan businesses identifying cybersecurity as their most critical skills shortage.

Masinde challenged the stigma surrounding technical and vocational careers, arguing that skilled trades offer significant income potential. In developed economies, she noted, plumbers often out-earn accountants.

To tackle unemployment, panellists proposed exporting skills. Dr Chitunga urged young Kenyans to learn foreign languages such as German, French, or Chinese to access labour markets in ageing economies across Europe and Asia. 

He also pointed to the demand for Kenyan professionals in countries like Papua New Guinea and Togo.

Recent youth-led policy forums suggest growing impatience with rhetoric centred on unrealised potential. Kenya’s youthful population, renewable energy capacity, strategic location, and expanding digital economy are frequently cited as advantages.

Whether these assets translate into sustained development, analysts argue, will depend less on symbolic comparisons with Singapore and more on consistent policy execution, institutional reform, and long-term investment decisions.