Matiang’i surges, Ruto leads as opposition closes in: What latest poll reveals

An opinion poll released by research firm Infotrak has revealed significant shift in political support with opposition candidates closing in on President William Ruto who remains the most preferred presidential candidate as political realignments take shape.

The survey released on December 28, 2025 shows President Ruto in the lead, polling at 28 per cent with support for former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr Fred Matiang’i surging to place him second.

13 per cent of Kenyans surveyed indicated that they would vote for Matiang’i, with Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 12 per cent.

Although he has not declared interest in the top seat, Embakasi East Member of Parliament came in fourth with 7 per cent.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua who remains ineligible to contest for the presidency at this time on account of his impeachment closed the top five with 5 per cent.

People’s Liberation Party leader Martha Karua and former Chief Justice David Maraga tied at position six, polling 2 per cent a piece.

Infotrak conducted the poll between December 19 and 20, 2025 with a sample size of 1,000 respondents drawn from all 47 counties and across the country’s eight regions.

The poll indicates that a significant 25 per cent of respondents had not settled on a preferred presidential candidate, making the contest open for either side.

Over the next several months and into the election as political realignments take shape, this block will shrink significantly.

Coming at a time when the united opposition is understood to be cementing their unity and the poll reflects political shifts that cannot be ignored.

Pundits opine that a united opposition presents the only realistic chance of sending President Ruto home, with a divided opposition increasing his chances of winning a second term.

It remains to be seen whether their unity will stand the test of time and translate into cumulative political strength capable of sending Ruto home in 2027.

The poll also indicates that the broad-based government formation is locked in a tight race with the united opposition gaining ground and a third political force emerging and closing in.

32 per cent of Kenyans who took part in the survey feel closest to the broad-based government led by President Ruto with 22 per cent aligning with the United Opposition coalition outfit led by Gachagua, Karua, Kalonzo, Eugene Wamalwa and Fred Matiang’i.

The survey placed the Kenya Moja Alliance led by Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, and MPs Babu Owino, Gathoni Wamuchomba and Ndindi Nyoro as a third force supported by 17 per cent of those who took part in the survey.

This underscores the political might of the outfit that could determine that outcome of the contest.

Despite 29 per cent of those surveyed said they do not identify with any of the three political formations, the result underscores the fierce political contest that cannot be ignored by the players in the race.

The scene remains largely unchanged with United Democratic Alliance leading the pack at 23 per cent, followed by Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 19 per cent.

Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) led by Rigathi Gachagua came a distant third, polling at 6 per cent followed by Jubilee Party (5 per cent) and Wiper Patriotic Front (4 per cent).