Kenyans to Feel the Pinch as Prices of Milk, Maize Flour and Sugar Set to Rise

Kenyans should brace for higher food bills in the near term as the prices of basic household staples, including fresh milk, maize flour, wheat flour, and sugar, are projected to rise, according to the latest findings from the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK).

In its September 2026 Agriculture Sector Survey, published on Wednesday, October 21, the regulator highlighted that persistent dry spells, escalating fuel tariffs, and heightened transport logistics costs are mounting pressure across the food supply chain.

The findings, drawn from interviews with 466 key market players comprising farmers, wholesalers, and retailers, point to a broad consensus on impending price shocks.

An overwhelming 74 per cent of respondents anticipate a steep jump in the cost of packeted fresh milk heading into October and November.

Staple grains and baking essentials are facing similar upward trajectories. Expectations for price hikes in fortified maize flour climbed to 47 per cent, up from 31 per cent in the previous cycle, while sifted maize flour expectations jumped dramatically from 19 per cent in August to 40 per cent in September.

Concurrently, nearly half of the market participants (48 per cent) foresee higher prices for white wheat flour, a notable rise from 29 per cent recorded previously.

Sugar and non-core agricultural items are not spared either. The proportion of respondents forecasting sugar price increments nearly doubled from 15 per cent to 28 per cent, with fresh produce such as garden peas also slated for notable increases heading into October and beyond.

Outlining the findings, the banking regulator noted: “The Balance of Opinion from the September 2026 survey indicates relatively more pronounced expectations for price increases across most of the sampled food commodities one month ahead.”

The central bank underscored that production costs and logistics remain the primary engines driving inflation at the retail level.

Unfavourable climate conditions were cited by 97 per cent of surveyed stakeholders as a primary driver, closely followed by transit expenses at 92 per cent and farm input prices at 80 per cent.

Market intermediaries and external market pressures also compound the strain. Approximately 62 per cent of respondents singled out brokers and middlemen for inflating shelf prices, while 58 per cent cited bottlenecks across global supply chains and geopolitical friction affecting fuel import costs.

Additionally, the lingering fallout from poor rainfall during the March–May long rains season has severely curtailed pasture regeneration across key dairy belts, triggering raw milk deficits that continue to push consumer prices upward.

The expected surge in basic food commodities threatens to keep overall headline inflation elevated, even as the Central Bank of Kenya maintains the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 8.75 per cent to stabilise price pressures.

Because food and non-alcoholic beverages carry significant weight in Kenya's Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, sudden spikes in everyday staples directly squeeze low- and middle-income household disposable incomes.

Despite the near-term warnings, the central bank report offered a glimmer of medium-term optimism. Analysts anticipate that potential price relief could materialise later in the fourth quarter if the predicted October–December short rains deliver adequate precipitation across key agricultural zones.

Enhanced soil moisture, coupled with ongoing government subsidies on agricultural inputs like fertiliser, is expected to boost crop production, improve pasture availability for livestock, and help moderate food price pressures moving into early 2027.